Ground truthing: protecting Antarctica’s past from climate change

18/09/2025

UKAHT’s Ruth Mullett and expert consultant Gordon Macdonald travelled to the Antarctic Peninsula to test a new modelling tool and assess how climate change is affecting our historic sites.

Earlier this year, UKAHT’s Head of Buildings and Conservation, Ruth Mullett, travelled with expert consultant Gordon Macdonald to the Antarctic Peninsula to collect a range of data at five designated historic sites, including four managed by the UKAHT. 

The project, A climate change risk assessment for Antarctic heritage, aims to better understand the vulnerabilities of heritage sites to the impacts of climate change.  

Gordon and Ruth gathered a variety of data, including LiDAR scans, drone photogrammetry, topographic analysis, building assessments, and temperature/ relative humidity readings. This data will now be analysed and applied to a detailed risk assessment tool, designed to identify specific, quantifiable areas of risk at each surveyed site, as well as broader risks to wooden heritage structures. The ultimate goal is to inform the UK’s climate change policy for Antarctic heritage management and build resilience against climate change at UKAHT’s terrestrial Antarctic heritage sites. 

The project is funded by the Green Overseas programme and undertaken on behalf of British Antarctic Territory (BAT). Transportation to the heritage sites was generously provided by G Adventures. 

Your recent trip to Antarctica 

Earlier this year, we were fortunate to visit five historic sites across the Antarctic Peninsula, four of which are cared for by UKAHT. Our journey was made possible through a partnership with G Adventures, which hosted us on their 14-day Quest for the Antarctic Circle expedition.

Our first landing was at Base W, Detaille Island, just south of the Antarctic Circle. It was uncertain whether we’d make it ashore – strong winds and heavy swells made conditions challenging – but thanks to the skill and determination of the ship’s captain and expedition team, we were able to land, along with the G Adventures passengers.

Ruth & Gordon heading south (Gordon Macdonald)

From there, we travelled further south to Base Y, Horseshoe Island, and Base E, Stonington Island, before turning north again to visit Base A, Port Lockroy, perhaps our best-known site. On the return leg, we also had the chance to assess Whalers Bay at Deception Island, part of the South Shetland Islands. While it’s not a UKAHT-managed site, Whalers Bay is highly significant for its long Antarctic history dating back to the whaling period of the early 20th century, and later as home to British Base B from 1944-69.  

We spent around half a day at each site – just enough time to take stock of how each site is weathering the increasingly harsh Antarctic environment. For me personally, Base Y and Whalers Bay were new ground, so it was particularly special to see them for the first time.

How is climate change affecting our sites?

The Antarctic Peninsula is warming faster than almost anywhere else on Earth. This rapid change in climate is already having a direct effect on the historic sites we protect.

We’re seeing more frequent and intense precipitation, both as snow and rain. Our historic buildings were never designed to withstand this – they have no rainwater goods and weren’t built to carry the extra weight of heavy, wet snow.

Ruth and Gordon visited Stonington (Gordon Macdonald)

As this snow melts, it creates pools or even flowing streams around the buildings. Over time, meltwater can erode foundations or damage walls, threatening the long-term survival of these fragile structures.

The warmer, wetter conditions are also creating the perfect environment for rot and algae proliferation, all of which are taking a visible toll on our exterior timbers.

Internally, these warmer wetter conditions are exacerbating problems with mould, which is speeding up the deterioration of artefacts. 

In short, the changing climate is not a distant threat; it’s a present-day challenge, and one we’re working hard to address through careful monitoring, adaptive conservation strategies, and continued collaboration with our partners.

UKAHT x GO Programme

The Green Overseas (GO) Programme is bringing bold climate action to the overseas territories of 25 European nations as well as the UK. Backed by €17.8 million from the EU and led by Expertise France, it’s focused on building a future that’s sustainable, resilient and fair.

One of those territories is the British Antarctic Territory, and we were delighted when the Government of the British Antarctic Territory identified our project as a good match for the funding. Following a rigorous application process, we received the go-ahead to pursue the project last year. 

Ruth capturing building details at Detaille (Gordon Macdonald)

From tackling environmental challenges to driving inclusive energy transitions, GO is turning big ideas into real solutions. With collaboration at its core – and equality, especially gender equality, at the forefront – the programme is working to ensure no one is left behind in the race for a greener tomorrow.

What is ground truthing?

As part of his PhD research, our expert consultant Gordon Macdonald developed a risk-assessment tool to examine how climate change is affecting heritage sites in Antarctica. The tool, which we hope will eventually be freely available online, is designed to help site managers carry out desk-based risk assessments using information that is universally available for all Antarctic Historic Sites and Monuments (HSMs) and Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs).

The tool supports decision-making in several ways: it can highlight which sites are most vulnerable to climate impacts, identify those at lower risk, and help managers prioritise planning, conservation, and research. By first mapping broad risks across multiple sites, resources can then be focused on fieldwork at the most at-risk locations to refine results and improve certainty.

Screen capture showing a 21° slope at one corner of the hut. (Gordon Macdonald)

Fieldwork is essential to test the model’s accuracy. For example, the tool assigns risk scores based on factors such as proximity to the shore, building materials, and geographic region (with the Antarctic Peninsula rated as the highest risk). On-site surveys are needed to confirm whether those desk-based scores hold true in practice.

The model was initially tested at heritage sites in the Ross Sea region. But because the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest-warming places on the planet, this project provided a vital chance to ground-truth the model in the region where climate change impacts are most acute. Based on this work, several refinements have already been made. For instance, the addition of slope as a new risk factor.

Another major aim of the trip was to streamline methods for rapid data collection at heritage sites. This approach is the natural next step after the initial risk assessment, giving managers a clear way to evaluate vulnerabilities on the ground. One of our priorities now is to publish this process, so that other Antarctic heritage managers can adopt, adapt, or improve the methodology for their own sites.

During your trip, was there a particular site, story or artefact that you learnt something new about?

For me, this was a particularly special trip, as it was my first time visiting UKAHT’s Base Y, Horseshoe Island.

I’d seen plenty of photographs of the main base hut before – a time capsule of Antarctic life in the 1950s – but I had never seen inside the Emergency Refuge. Reaching it involves a 15-minute walk across uneven terrain, but stepping inside felt magical.

Inside the the Emergency Refuge at Horseshoe (Gordon Macdonald)

The refuge contains six bunk beds, still fitted with sleeping bags, along with first aid kits, pyramid tents, food supplies and stoves – everything the team would have needed to survive if disaster had struck the main hut. Standing there, surrounded by these preserved remnants of Antarctic preparedness, quite literally took my breath away.

What are the next steps?

Our first priority is to analyse all the information we've gathered. Processing LiDAR and photogrammetry data takes time; there’s a lot of work involved in turning this raw data into usable, accurate models of our sites.

Once that’s done, we’ll focus on identifying patterns and trends. We want to better understand the key vulnerabilities at each site and see whether similar issues are affecting other sites across the Antarctic Peninsula, and Antarctica more widely. This will help us pinpoint where conservation efforts are most urgently needed.

We also want to share our findings as widely as possible. We already have a draft online risk assessment tool, but we’d ultimately like to make that freely available to anyone. We hope this will support other managers of Antarctic heritage sites in recognising and prioritising the most pressing risks facing their own locations.

A screen capture showing solar aspect of the site with the hut in context (Gordon Macdonald)

While our work is focused on Antarctica, we believe it could have wider relevance. Both polar regions are experiencing environmental change faster than almost anywhere else on Earth. The approach we’re developing – rapid data collection, clear risk assessment, and targeted conservation – could be valuable for other climate-sensitive regions around the world.

Thanks to this project, we now have a proven method for collecting data quickly and effectively, along with a baseline dataset for the five sites we visited. That gives us a strong foundation to build on.

In the years ahead, we’ll continue using this process – either in full or in part – to monitor how our buildings and the surrounding environment are changing as the climate continues to evolve.